10 Baseline assumptions are derived from a mix of current and projected technologies and costs. Among the key assumptions in the baseline assessment is that Space Exploration Technologies Corporation’s (SpaceX’s) Starship launcher, which is currently in testing, will be commercially available at $100M per launch. We make no claim as to the reliability of this assumption given the early stages of Starship development, but rather make this assumption because on a per kilogram basis, this represents a similar decline in launch prices from today as has occurred in the past 10 years. We include a 15% block buy discount because of the very large number of launches required to deploy an SBSP system. We assume one payload-laden Starship in LEO requires refueling by 12 separate Starship propellant tankers to reach GEO (Blue Origin Fed’n, LLC; Dynetics, Inc.-A Leidos Co., 2021).14 Based on subject matter experts (SME) input, we also assume 100 reuses of Starships used for refueling, and that payload-carrying Starships are single-use. SpaceX has been able to conduct two Falcon 9 launches in a week, so we assume this launch cadence for the Assemble ConOps phase. The Aerospace Corporation provided estimates of manufacturing learning curves, first-unit costs for each hardware element, component and system lifetimes, as well as module assembly time, all of which were reviewed, augmented, and incorporated by the study team. Finally, literature on SBSP concepts informed system specifications of the RD1 and RD2 designs. Estimated time to assemble a fully developed SBSP system in our baseline assessment is 7.4 years for RD1 and 12.6 years for RD2. Key input parameters are shown in Table 2. For a complete accounting of inputs, assumptions, and calculations, please see Appendix B. 2.1.3 Levelized Cost of Electricity Using our cost estimates, we calculated the LCOE measured in $/kWh for each reference design to compare overall costs to other renewable electricity production technologies. LCOE is commonly used by the energy sector for comparative analyses. LCOE is calculated by estimating the lifecycle cost (using different units for different categories) of the SBSP system and dividing that by lifecycle kWh production by the system. Figure 7 provides an overview of the LCOE calculation. 14 This estimate was derived using publicly available information about the initial human landing system for lunar exploration to be developed by SpaceX and modifying that based on the assumption that reaching GEO orbit would not require as many refueling launches as would reaching cislunar space. Blue Origins Fed’n, LLC; Dynetics, Inc.-A Leidos Co., B-419783 et al., July 30, 2021, 2021 CPD ¶ 265 at 27 n.13. This data was used because the Starship launch vehicle is anticipated to be the largest super heavy launch vehicle with available data and should not be construed as an endorsement by NASA. It is important to note that multiple specifications for this vehicle are planned, and cover a range of payload capacities, fuel capacities, and more.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==