18 notional utility-scale SBSP systems and have come out with much lower costs – LCOEs of $5070/MWh – than our baseline numbers. Refer to the Methodology section or Appendix B for a full accounting of assumed capabilities and costs. Sensitivity analyses of the primary cost drivers show how SBSP costs could be reduced to levels more comparable with those found in other studies. 4.0 Sensitivity Analyses Given that the largest cost drivers for both systems are launch and manufacturing of spacecraft and servicers, we conducted sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of reduced launch costs and improved manufacturing learning curves. First, we examined individual variables; then we conducted a multiple-variable sensitivity analysis. Details of the sensitivity analyses are provided below, and in greater detail in Appendix B. Figure 12 shows the difference in total cost from each sensitivity analysis to the baseline assessment. 4.1 Launch 4.1.1 Direct Launch to GEO The baseline analysis assumes Starship launches 100 MT to LEO and is refueled on orbit to continue to GEO for system assembly. A Starship carrying 100 MT requires 12 refueling launches in LEO to continue to GEO, based on publicly available information about the initial human landing system to be developed by SpaceX and SME assessments. However, some Starship configurations are also capable of launching 21 MT direct to GEO. When launching directly to GEO, the number of launches drops from 2,321 to 863 for RD1 and from 3,960 to 1,470 for RD2. This decrease drops the LCOE of the RD1 and RD2 systems by 42% and 47%, respectively. This is assuming the cost per launch for a fully disposable or reusable Starship fleet is the same. Direct launch to GEO yields only a marginal decrease in emissions, however, as the reduced number of launches is offset by the need to manufacture more vehicles because Starship vehicles launched to GEO cannot be reused. While all 863 direct-to-GEO missions for RD1 would be on single-use vehicles, for example, the 2,321 LEO launches required in the baseline assessment scenario could be carried out by just 199 individual vehicles. Direct launch to GEO saves about 2 and 4 gCO2eq. per kWh – or 8% and 9% – for RD1 and RD2, respectively. 4.1.2 Reduced Launch Costs Launches for assembly and maintenance are the biggest driver of SBSP system costs. Baseline launch costs for Starship are set at $100M/launch, the current price of Falcon Heavy. If that price is dropped to $50M/launch, the LCOE decreases by about 36% and 39% for RD1 and RD2, respectively. At $10M/launch the LCOE drops about 64% for the RD1 and 70% for the RD2. The
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