20 4.1.4 Spacecraft Hardware Life The baseline hardware lifetime is assumed to be 10 years, requiring two refurbishment cycles to maintain operations for a 30-year SBSP system lifetime. Extending hardware lifetime to 15 years halves the number of maintenance launches, decreasing the cost of both systems by 26%. GHG emissions are reduced by 27% and 29% from baseline for RD1 and RD2, respectively, due to the reduction in rocket manufacturing and launches. Figure 13. Percent Change in GHG Emissions Intensity from Baseline 4.2 Manufacturing 4.2.1 Initial Hardware Costs The baseline cost estimates assume current hardware costs. Given the timeframe of SBSP development and deployment, hardware costs are likely to be lower, though we make no claim that the following changes represent any kind of prediction. For this sensitivity analysis, first-unit hardware costs were decreased 90%: The first SBSP system module’s cost went from $1M to $100,000; the first servicer’s cost from $1B to $100M; and the first ADR vehicle’s cost from $500M to $50M. These values are in line with The Aerospace Corporation’s survey of current commercial
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