26 Analysis shows (BryceTech, 2022) that the average launch price per kilogram of payload dropped by 36% from 2013 to 2022. Our baseline assessment assumes launches begin around 2040 to assemble the SBSP system in orbit. If the current rate of decline continues – today’s lowest price is $1,500/kg – launches would cost $615/kg in 2040, or $61.5M for the 100 MT each Starship delivers to LEO. This is still higher than the $50M figure we used for our multiple-variable sensitivity analysis. As previously noted, the exact climate impact of burning rocket fuel in the upper atmosphere is unknown, but widely assumed to be worse than burning an equivalent amount of fuel on the ground (NOAA, 2022). 5.2.3 Manufacturing at scale To lower the manufacturing cost of SBSP infrastructure, it is important to achieve economies of scale. Mass production has driven down the cost of mega-constellations, making the services offerings of Starlink (SpaceX, 2023) and OneWeb (OneWeb, 2023) price competitive for consumers. SpaceX reportedly produced 120 satellites and thousands of terminals per month during 2020, an unprecedented rate in the industry (Sheetz, SpaceX is manufacturing 120 Starlink internet satellites per month, 2020). In the SBSP Develop phase, to lower module manufacturing costs, scaled manufacturing will be required with significant upfront capital expenditure. Despite significant advances in mass manufacturing of satellites, learning curves and costs have not come down to the level needed for the scale required to support SBSP system development. Findings from this report and supporting research suggest the industry needs to reach annual production of at least thousands of satellites to reach the learning curves described in this assessment. High hardware manufacturing costs therefore remain a barrier in the Develop phase. 5.2.4 Launch cadence Launch cadence affects the cost and schedule of SBSP systems. The baseline assessment assumes two dedicated SBSP launches per week, or 104 per year. For comparison, global launches in 2022 set a new record with 186 (BryceTech, 2023). Currently there are no plans to expand launch capacity to the degree required to support our assumed SBSP launch cadence. It is also important to note that while Starship provides far greater payload capacity than existing operational vehicles and is assumed in the baseline assessment to be somewhat cheaper per kilogram, it has unique ground system requirements that limit its launch capacity. To meet our baseline assumption of 104 launches per year, Starship would require five to 10 times its current ground support infrastructure, all dedicated to SBSP. This may not be possible given competing needs for Starship from other customers.
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