30 5.5.2 Alternative Launch Some alternative launch technologies in development may lead to significant cost reductions. Multiple companies are researching kinetic launch, for example. SpinLaunch (SpinLaunch, n.d.) has a Space Act Agreement with NASA and Longshot Space (Longshot Space, n.d.) is performing work for the Air Force under its Small Business Innovation Research program. Given existing mass limitations, these approaches would only apply to modules and not servicers, and it remains to be seen whether kinetic launch will be successful and achieve promised cost reductions. 5.5.3 Mass Manufacturing Advances in mass manufacturing would benefit SBSP, certainly the multi-million-module designs examined in this study. Mass manufacturing, as seen with Starlink and OneWeb satellites, may reduce space hardware production costs in general, potentially benefitting unrelated space manufacturing activities, including SBSP. While manufacturing does tend to improve with experience, and the scale of SBSP constitutes significant experience, we cannot assume that this will be the case until it happens. 5.5.4 Advanced Materials Advances in materials could lead to significant mass reductions, whether from the material itself or new design optimizations. NASA has invested in several relevant projects, such as Lightweight Materials and Structures (NASA, 2020) and Superlightweight Aerospace Composites (NASA, 2022). Novel materials may be more expensive until production scales, which may limit their applicability. 5.6 Architecture Opportunities This study did not assess the potential of novel architectures. However, improvements and new designs currently being studied may lead to lower costs or higher efficiency. These opportunities may change SBSP ConOps and introduce significant cost reduction. In the baseline estimate, launch costs represented one third and half of total costs for RD1 and RD2, respectively. Caltech has explored deployment of a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation of SBSP satellites (Marshall, Madonna, & Pellegrino, 2023). Incorporating Caltech’s 2022 analysis of a MEO constellation’s efficiency into this study’s cost and climate model would provide a more complete picture of SBSP system efficacy. 6.0 Options for NASA to Consider In this section, we present options for NASA senior leaders regarding the Agency’s role in the worldwide acceleration of SBSP development activity. This data may provide decision-makers with a basis to reassess existing policy. The two options discussed below are not mutually exclusive; NASA may elect to pursue both paths.
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