49 The above WBS elements were used to derive the cost to launch original hardware, including refuel launches, servicer manufacturing costs, and mission operations and data analysis costs for each design reference. Estimating costs for Launch of Original Hardware: Aerospace approached launch costs by estimating the total launches needed to deliver the SBSP systems to their operational orbit, which includes launches to refuel in LEO. Aerospace conducted a trade study to find the most desirable launch vehicle from a mass- and volume-to-orbit standpoint. After evaluating multiple heavy-lift launch and transfer vehicles and also considering ability to refuel and reuse, Starship was selected. Launch of original hardware includes both launch costs for initial assembly and launch costs to refuel in LEO. To find the number of launches for initial assembly, we divide the total upmass (the total in-space mass, normalized to 2 GW, plus the total servicer mass) by Starship’s payload capacity to LEO. Starship’s capacity to LEO is based on the 2020 users guide published by SpaceX. To find the number of launches to refuel in LEO, we assume that for every payload of original hardware delivered to LEO, it will require 12 additional Starship launches to refuel for transfer to GEO (Blue Origin Fed’n, LLC; Dynetics, Inc.-A Leidos Co., 2021). After finding the total number of launches for original hardware and additional fuel, we multiply by Starship’s launch cost and also apply a block discount rate of 15%. Starship’s launch cost and the block discount rate were both determined by Aerospace. Estimating costs for Servicer Manufacturing: Costs for spacecraft servicer manufacturing were based on the Mission Extension Vehicle 2 (MEV-2). Aerospace assumed an initial cost of $1B for the first servicer unit. Based on a one-year design life for servicers, they estimated a 7-year assembly time, with an 85% learning curve. A Crawford Model learning curve formula was applied to estimate costs for all servicers. WBS Elements RD1 RD2 Sources Number of Starships built (reusable) 66 113 Assumes Starships to GEO are never reused. Starship Capable launch sites capacity (launches per annum) 104 104 At present, Starship-capable launch sites: Boca Chica (~5/year), LC39A (<20/year), new LC40 pad (unknown capability), and an unknown number of off-shore platforms - we assume capability to launch 2 Starships every week (average over period of time under study). BryceTech SME. Hardware payloads to GEO per annum 8 8 Time to launch all payloads (years) 7.375 12.625 Based on first order assembly model Total Assemble Cost ($) $78.9B $124.1B
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