73 impacts of all manufacturing, launch, and solar cell modifications. To recreate these results, simply take the above data and relationships in calculation and modify as described below. Launch Sensitivity Analysis 1 - Reduced Launch Costs 1 a) $50M b) $10M • Summary of modification(s): Reduction of Starship launch costs from $100,000,000 per launch to a) $50,000,000 and b) $10,000,000 per launch. • Rationale: Baseline launch costs per kg take the lowest recorded cost (Falcon Heavy, 2019, $1500), and apply the same decrease in launch prices from the previous 10 years. SpaceX has announced that Starship launches might reduce to $10,000,000 per launch in the 20242025 timeframei. Additionally, launch costs declined 36% in the past 10 years. Based on these expectations and assuming launches in 2040, we consider medium and low scenarios for launch, which is the main driver of both SBSP system costs (Duffy, 2022). • Result: For $50M, this results in a 32% total cost savings for the Innovative Heliostat Swarm and a 36% total cost savings for the Planar Array. For $10M, this results in a 61% reduction in cost for Innovative Heliostat Swarm, and 69% for Mature Planar Array. Sensitivity Analysis 2 - Launch Direct to GEO • Summary of modification(s): Starships take payloads directly to GEO, removing refuel launches and reusability, and reducing payload capacity to 21 MT. • Rationale: Starship is able to deliver a fraction of its payload to GEO; this is a test of the costs and benefits of this approach. • Result: While costs are reduced by at least 42% and 47% for RD1 and RD2, respectively, due to the reduced number of launches, GHG emissions decrease just 8% and 9%, respectively, due to the increased number of Starships manufactured. Sensitivity Analysis 3 - Electric Propulsion for Orbital Transfer • Summary of modification(s): We added 17.2% of system mass and manufacturing cost based on propulsion mass per module, and removed launches to refuel in LEO. This modification is based on first order delta v calculations using specifications from NASA’s NEXT-C thruster (NASA, 2023), assuming >4,700m/s is needed to reach GEO from LEO. • Rationale: Though using EP adds upmass, it can significantly reduce the number of launches required, as there is no need to refuel in LEO. This makes the most use out of Starship’s payload capacity to LEO, but comes at a cost of a longer time (about 4 months) to complete the orbital transfer.
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