74 • Result: This results in a 62% total cost savings for the Innovative Heliostat Swarm and a 69% total cost savings for the Mature Planar Array. The travel time from LEO to GEO increased to four months as opposed to refueling for one month and traveling for one month under chemical propulsion. The additional mass of the propulsion units did not appreciably change assembly time. Manufacturing Sensitivity Analysis 1 - Initial Hardware Costs • Summary of modification(s): We apply a 10% reduction in initial module costs, first servicer costs, and ADR vehicle base cost. The reduction in hardware costs affects all other parameters that use these costs as inputs, such as program management and technology development. • Rationale: Original hardware costs for this analysis were based on U.S. Government technology demonstration missions. We reduce hardware development costs to levels provided by a survey of existing and upcoming commercial offerings performed by Aerospace. • Result: Combining all reduced costs results in an 19% total cost savings to the Innovative Heliostat Swarm and 14% total cost savings to the Mature Planar Array. Sensitivity Analysis 2 - Learning Curve Reduction • Summary of modification(s): learning rate for servicers reduced from 85% to 80%, learning rate for modules reduced from 75% to 70%, and learning rate for ADR vehicles reduced from 90% to 80%. • Rationale: Aerospace consistently used a learning curve model based on cumulative averages, which results in faster learning when compared to the model used for this analysis. This method leverages data from other industries with complex processes and production of 100s to 1,000s of units to evaluate learning rate and cost combinations. We therefore decrease our learning rates to be on par with this method while still considering the units-based Crawford model. • Result: Considering all updated learning rates results in a 4% total cost savings for the Innovative Heliostat Swarm and a 3% total cost savings for the Mature Planar Array. Sensitivity Analysis 3 - Increased Hardware Lifetime • Summary of modification(s): Baseline module and servicer lifetime is set to 10 years. Here, the lifetime is increased to 15 years. • Rationale: Today’s GEO hardware is most commonly baselined for a 15-year lifetime. • Result: The extended lifetime leads to a reduction of one refurbishment cycle, saving 21% in fiscal costs for Innovative Heliostat Swarm and 23% in GHG emissions per kWh. For Mature Planar Array, the cost reduction was 29% and emissions reduction was 28%.
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