75 Solar Cell Efficiency Sensitivity Analysis 1 - Solar Cell Efficiency (15% Increase) • Summary of modification(s): Efficiency of solar cells is increased by 15 percentage points, from 35% to 50%. • Rationale: NASA noted that the state of the practice for solar cell efficiency is 33%, while the state of the art is 70% (NASA, 2022). The best research cell efficiency currently tracked by NREL is 47.6% (NREL, n.d.). • Result: The improvement in solar cell efficiency leads to a reduction in mass to deliver the same 2 GW of power, and therefore less manufacturing and fewer launches, resulting in 19% cost savings for Innovative Heliostat Swarm, 23% for Mature Planar Array, and 25% GHG emissions reduction per kWh for Innovative Heliostat Swarm and 28% for Mature Planar Array. Multiple Variable Sensitivity Analyses Sensitivity Analysis 1 – Competitive Solution • Summary of modification(s): o Launch costs are here reduced from $100M to $50M. o Efficiency of solar cells is increased by 15%. o Initial servicer and ADR vehicle costs are reduced by 90%. o Learning curves are lowered by 5 percentage points across the board. o 1,720kg of EP (fuel + hardware) for every 10,000kg of system mass for orbital transfer; 17.2% additional cost to total module manufacturing cost. • Rationale: Select sensitivities were combined with modifications to understand what conditions may lead the SBSP design references to become economically and environmentally competitive with existing renewable electricity technology projections for 2050. • Result: Costs are reduced by 95% for both systems, and emissions intensity by 86% for Innovative Heliostat Swarm and 90% for Mature Planar Array. Sensitivity Analysis 2 - Present Day Costs Only • Summary of modification(s): o Launch costs are here increased from $100M to $150M. o Initial module cost is increased to $5M o Learning curves are increased to 85% for modules and 95% for servicers and ADR vehicles. o Operations costs are increased from a flat fee to $500k per 2,800kg of system mass annually. o Starship reuses are reduced from 100 to 50.
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