increase in solar cell cost is further reinforced by JPL (JSC Space Team presentation) in Ref. A13 in which the cost sensitivity graph shows only a relatively modest gap between the total cost surves associated with the $500/kW solar collection cost and the $50/kW cost. A different chart in the same reference indicates a range of approximately $400-$1200 total cost per kW associated with the $100-$500 solar cell envelope. Obviously, the achievement of any of the projected cost/kW levels shown in Exhibit 29 will depend on major technological breakthroughs in solar cell fabrication, since currently produced solar cells represent a cost of approximately $80,000/kW and the reduction to $200/kW represents a change of more than two orders of magnitude. The literature contains numerous discussions of problems and tasks associated with this cost reduction effort, many of which are reviewed in Section IV of this report. 8. Transportation Cost The references provided contain a great deal of technical discussion on transportation technology and the factors which influence transportation cost both on a per unit and total basis. As shown in Exhibit 28, transportation costs, taken as a whole, consistently represent the first or second largest cost component in total system cost, ranging from 13 to 43 percent. There are, however, wide variations in both the absolute dollar cost and the proportion of total costs, even within the same system concept. This is due in part to the wide range of assumptions required to derive any estimate of total cost and the uncertainties associated with them. Among the more critical assumptions and inputs required are: • The final mass of the assembled satellite. • The method and location (LEO and/or GEO) of satellite assembly. • The method selected for interorbital transportation of both men and material from LEO to GEO. • The mass overhead burden represented by the mass requirements of the selected modes of assembly and interorbital transfer. • The mass overhead burden represented by packaging requirements for LEO transport.
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