A Survey of SPS 1976 PRC

summarizing several reference estimates of competitive power costs. The consensus appears to be that coal and oil generated power will have a generation cost in the general range of 25-30 mills/kWh in 1974 dollars or perhaps, depending on inflation assumptions, in the range of 35-50 mills in inflated dollars. To explain this key issue a bit further, two additional analyses were undertaken. The first analysis obtains an estimate of SSPS energy costs using a methodology developed by TRW and applied by them to various alternative systems. The second is an attempt to independently compare SSPS energy costs with those of the LMFBR and solar terrestrial systems on a common basis. These two analyses are reported in the following two subsections which conclude this section. a. Estimation of SSPS Energy Costs Using TRW Methodology The TRW methodology is contained in an undated draft TRW document entitled "Chapter III. Comparisons of Technologies on Basis of Unit Cost." The basic SSPS (Photovoltaic) costs are presented in the ECON study (Ref. All). Reconstructing the TRW unit costs from the data and discussion presented is impossible since the estimates are based on information alluded to in the text but not presented. Among the critical missing items are: fuel costs, both current and projected; construction schedules (the construction period is necessary to compute the interest cost); and any quantitative presentation of the uncertainty functions. The unit costs for "geopressured geothermal conversion" and "OTEC (ocean thermal)" can be approximately reproduced, however, since there are no fuel costs to be considered, thus confirming a basic understanding of the methodology. In adapting the ECON cost estimates to the TRW methodology, two inconsistencies were encountered that require essentially arbitrary judgements. One is the use of $1974 by ECON versus TRW's $1975. Given the huge uncertainties in these numbers, no attempt is made to adjust for this factor. The second problem is less trivial. TRW assumes in all cases that the plant (load) factor is 0.7. ECON, on the other hand, assumes a plant factor of 1.00. Although both positions are admittedly arbitrary,

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