a critical premise of the whole SSPS concept is a very high plant factor that approaches 1.0, to overcome the admittedly much lower and inherently uncertain load factor and associated storage requirements for terrestrial solar plants. Therefore four different load factors are used in the analysis: 0.7 (per TRW); 0.90 and 0.95 per other SSPS studies; and 1.00 per ECON. The results of this analysis are shown in Exhibit 31. Since the ECON data are not presented in range fashion, but rather as a single point estimate, the top half of the exhibit calculates the point value that would result with the TRW methodology. Since only very limited uncertainty or sensitivity analysis is presented in the ECON study, and since this analysis shows generally modest (7-10%) changes in delivered energy costs, it is not used in the remainder of the analysis. Instead, a +15% factor is applied, first to capital costs alone and then to both capital and O&M costs. This seems to be more comparable with TRW's arbitrary but apparently uniform application of a 15% uncertainty factor for capital costs. The results of applying two different uncertainty assumptions and four different plant factors produces eight different range estimates as shown at the bottom of the exhibit. It is recommended that the estimates corresponding to the 90% plant or load factor and the 15% uncertainty in capital costs be used. The 90% load factor is the lowest proposed for a solar photovoltaic system (MSFC, Ref. A16) , while JPL (Ref. A9) suggest 95% and ECON uses 100%. Clearly, to lower SSPS load factor to 70% would arbitrarily remove any justification for such a plant. As to the uncertainty assumptions, 15% applied to capital only is the approach which is most comparable to TRW's treatment of other facilities; it is at the same time very conservative in relation to the already presumably conservative ECON estimates. This recommendation gives an estimated SSPS cost range of 27-35.3 mills/kWh with a baseline (no uncertainties) value of 31.2. The range is plotted on the Exhibit 32 graph (adapted from TRW) labeled SSPS at 90%, for the approximate IOC year. A second range which assumes the 70% load factor is also plotted and appropriately labeled. b. SSPS, Breeder Reactor, and Solar Terrestrial Energy Costs The objective of this analysis is to make a limited comparison
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==