A Survey of SPS 1976 PRC

the scenarios while the two estimates provided by the original draft EIR for a 1987 IOC of 10.7 and ]0.2 mills/kWh respectively are used for two other LMFBR scenarios. Exhibit 37 shows the derivation of a "standardized" estimate of busbar energy costs for the central receiver terrestrial system. The JPL estimate as published was 91 mills/kWh. Using the same basic assumptions but restating them to eliminate inflation and using a 10 percent rather than a 10.5 percent discount rate reduces this cost to 64 mills/kWh. No comparable supporting exhibits are provided for the SSPS since the costs for that system have been discussed in considerably greater detail in the earlier part of this appendix. In general, the estimates used are those provided by the ECON study (Ref. All) restated for a 10 percent rather than a 7.5 percent discount rate. Alternative estimates of program costs for the LMFBR are presented in Exhibit 38. Also shown in that exhibit is a hypothetical scheduling of the DDT&E costs in order to derive an appropriate discounted rate. The available literature on the LMFBR (WASH-1535) shows only the actual present value and does not show a detailed scheduling beyond 1979 for any of the various program cost estimates. An arbitrary assumption was made that all non-support costs were fully expended by the IOC and that support costs given for the period 1980-2020 were expended evenly over that period. This assumption was then tested by the application of a 10 percent discount rate. The total present value so generated ($4.55 million is the sum of $3.99 for LMFBR and $0.56 for support) corresponds rather closely to the $4.5 billion estimate published in WASH-1535. A parallel estimate was made for the 1991 IOC which also showed a present value of $4.5 billion. In the final EIR WASH-1535 (December 1975), substantially higher program costs were cited and were presented in a rather different and non-comparable form. These higher costs added up to $14.4 billion in current dollars for the present value of $6.1 billion at 10 percent. Apparently, these higher program costs include construction and development of a parallel breeder reactor which was excluded from the previous analysis. Estimates of the program costs, in this case stated as R&D costs, for the terrestrial solar plant are reproduced in Exhibit 39 from the

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