of $33 billion and MSFC (Ref. A20) estimates $260 billion. O'Neill reports in Ref. 13 that MSFC has made two other estimates of $200 billion and $140 billion, the latter figure eliminating unnecessary lift systems. The Ref. A20 MSFC estimate is the most comprehensive one available and is reproduced in Exhibit 58. This estimate reflects the total cost to the earth economy leading to and including the establishment of the first space colony in the year 2000. The costs are chiefly parametric estimates based on historical data where available and on data that have been developed in several studies of future projects that contained elements similar to the requirements of the O'Neill concept. A reasonable degree of accuracy (+ 25%) is claimed for the majority of cost elements. The least certain estimates are those of the costs that would be required in the late 1990's for the actual development and construction of the space colony. In all cases where uncertainties in the cost estimates exist, the estimates are felt to be conservative. The costs are expressed in current year (1975) dollars with no allowance for future inflationary effects. An explanation of each cost element follows: Habitat Simulation - The Habitat Simulation cost is based on large scale earth construction projects (sports stadiums, apartment dwellings, transportation systems, municipal services, etc.). It includes all the design activity and construction of the elements that would be required to establish a closed-loop (with the exception of power) 10,000 population economy. Once established, the habitat is self-sufficient for the operating time span, and except for electrical power input and monitoring, is assumed to have zero operations cost to the exterior economy. Space Stations and Bases - The cost of the low earth orbit space base reflects the growth of a modular space station to a 100 man space base. The costs are based on MSFC studies and include both stations and the mission hardware. The geosynchronous orbit station and the lunar orbit station take advantage of inherited development and economies of scale in the production phase.
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