XI. DEVELOPMENT TIME FOR NEW SYSTEMS It is very difficult to get a realistic appreciation of the long time involved in developing a new high-technology system such as the SPS. It is, however, very important to do so in order that planning may be effective and neither drawn out too long nor accelerated too rapidly. Bertram Wolfe surveys the development of nuclear fission power (Ref. LI), both its successes and failures, and draws several conclusions which emphasize the importance of planning. Two of these are: 1. The cost of developing a new power system is measured in billions of dollars. The time for developing a new system is measured in decades. There is a substantial risk that a new system will not meet the performance goals originally anticipated by its proponents. 2. All proposed advanced power systems have advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantages and difficulties become clearer with time and development effort. The rate of expenditure for successful development and installation increases with time. There is no perfect advanced system, and none are cheap to develop. There are a large number of alternate systems, each with its advocates. Unless major resources are focused on a very few systems of most promise, there is a danger that no one system will receive adequate resources to reach success. The decision process involved in bringing a major technological innovation to fruition has been charted in Ref. L2 in a study of the diffusion of major technological innovations in U.S. iron and steel manufacturing. It is shown here as Exhibit 68. The parallels to SPS development are obvious. NASA has done some planning for the SPS using what they call a stepping stone approach. Although this is an appealing concept, the time estimates are quite soft and seem to be generally optimistic. Robert C. Dean, Jr., in a castigation of American industry's record of technological innovation (Ref. L3), presents a list of ten innovations
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==