that took an average of 19 years from first conception to first realization. This table is reproduced in Exhibit 69.. Dean further points out that the return on investment (ROI) will not break even for several years after the introduction of the system thus further complicating and raising the importance of adequate planning. Dean's model of the product life cycle is indicated in the following sketch: In the SPS development, there is not only the technological innovation associated with the system itself but there are also at least four predecessor innovations: (1) highly improved solar cells and arrays, (2) a heavy lift launch vehicle, (3) microwave transmission of power, and (4) large space structures. Assuming it takes 19 years to develop these four in parallel and another 19 years to develop the SPS itself, one is talking about an IOC date of around 2015. Project Hindsight (Refs. L4 and L5) was a Department of Defense sponsored study which compared successor items with predecessor items (the C-130A transport aircraft succeeded by the C-141, for example), and identified all the contributions from science and technology which were significant in the improvement of performance or reduction of cost. Each specific contribution was identified as to time, place, and contributor and labeled as
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