an Event. Successor systems started development 13 years later than its predecessor, on the average, and for complex systems 50 to 100 Events were common. It is important to point out that most of these Events occurred after the start of the predecessor system and that all were important but none were dominant. Thus, unless tremendous effort is expended in a multitude of directions, it seems reasonably clear that the process cannot be accelerated a great deal. The SPS and its predecessor innovations would require 250 to 500 Events which could presumably occur in two generations or 26 years assuming no major difficulties along the way. This places the start of SPS development at the beginning of the 21st century. The report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress (Ref. L6) contains a wealth of information and fascinating data on technological change. In Exhibit 70, a table similar to that reproduced from Ref. L3 above, the Commission finds an average lapsed time between "incubation" and total development of 26 years. As indicated in the table, the Commission found that two distinct steps occur in the process of technological development after the technical feasibility of an innovation has been established. 1. A period ensues when little or nothing of a concrete nature occurs because although technical feasibility has been established, a number of missing elements must be supplied before the commercial potential becomes evident. 2. Once the commercial potential has been recognized, a period of commercial development ensues when a directed effort is made to convert the basic technology into a technically and economically feasible product or process. The table shows the incubation period and commercial development period for each of 20 technological innovations studied and the date when commercial development work was initiated. As the table indicates, there is a large variation, particularly in the incubation period. For these 20 innovations, the average incubation period was 19 years, and for commercial development, 7 years. These averages are not particularly important except that they emphasize that the time required for a major technical
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