discovery to be converted into a useful commercial product or process is far longer (an average of 26 years) than is generally recognized. Exhibits 71 through 76, taken from Ref. L6, trace the development of six highly complex advanced technology systems. It is left as an exercise for the reader to generate a similar exhibit for the SPS but by any measure, it is currently in the very earliest stages of development as are the four predecessor items mentioned above (solar cells, HLLV, microwave transmission of power, and large space structures). The historical perspective of Ref. L6 then would imply a minimum 26-year development period and a more likely period of 52 years. The latter estimate would put a commercial SPS well into the second decade of the next century. It can be fairly concluded from this brief survey of the subject that technological innovation is a considerably lengthier process than has been reflected in the SPS documentation generated to date. Furthermore, positive results from a number of rather modest experiments should be in hand (raising solar cell efficiencies, determining the viability and safety of microwave power transmission, etc.) before any commitment is made to proceed with full-scale SPS development.
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