2. A POST-2000 MISSION MODEL Oscar Morgenstern once said, "Predicting things is very difficult, especially the future." Yet, if one is to establish the salvage value of SPS demonstration and full-scale satellites, one must describe the environment within which these satellites are salvaged. At the very least, this means identifying a space mission model for the time period during which the salvage operation will take place. Basically this time period may be divided into two parts: the years 2000 to 2030 during which time the principal object of salvage is the SPS demonstration satellite; and the period 2030 to 2060, and possibly beyond, when full-scale SPS satellites would become available for salvage. To begin with, one should recognize that these time frames, at least in terms of specific economic projections, are quite far in the future. The earlier time frame begins 20 years from now and spans a period of 30 years, ending half a century from today. The second period, beginning in the year 2030, is a period of projection that is one-half a century and more in the future. On the scale of life of five-year and ten-year plans, and of long-range planning that does not go beyond the end of the 20th century, it is, for all practical purposes, impossible to develop a mission model containing specific space missions. Rather, over the period 2000 to 2030, projections of space activities are highly uncertain, although there is some hope to identify and establish general trends. These trends can be identified on the basis of existing technologies and technology projections for the relatively near term. For example, an operational space transportation system based on the Space Shuttle and advanced Shuttle derivatives is likely to lead to reduced costs for space activities and, subsequently, to an increasing level of commercial business in space.
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