The major observation which one draws from Figure 2.2 is that dramatic growth in space-based activities, if such growth indeed occurs between now and the year 2060, will derive mainly from private sector ventures undertaken because they are economic. The challenge to NASA is to focus space programs between now and the year 2000 in such a way as to promote the economic utilization of space. Given the proper opportunities, it is conceivable that as much as 20 percent of the gross national product in the year 2060, or say $1 trillion per year, will be derived from space-based activities. On the other hand, without proper encouragement and technology development from NASA and other government agencies, this amount could be very much smaller and the government could still dominate annual expenditures on space activities as late as the year 2060. 2.1 The Period 2000 to 2030 In the context of the above discussion, it is possible to make useful observations on space-based activities during the period 2000 to 2030. A principal activity in space during this period will quite clearly be space-based communications, data collection and data processing. It is also evident that the current trend of placing an ever increasing number of relatively small satellites in geosynchronous orbit cannot continue. Communications and data needs will be satisfied in the future by the use of large geosynchronous platforms rather than by a number of smaller satellites. Accordingly the following general trends are identified for the post-2000 time period: 1. Space will be populated with fewer larger spacecraft. This will be accomplished by transition to large mutli-purpose platforms. 2. Bandwidth limitations will be overcome by using higher power levels and spot beams. 3. Multi-purpose platforms will not be co-located with SPS due to conflicting requirements such as the potential need for turning SPS satellites out of the sun during maintenance periods.
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