A similar analysis for oil prices indicates that the projections of the Hudson-Jorgenson estimates of "no policy change" would not affect the relative standing of oil-fired systems. Were the "energy conservation policies pursued, the price of electric power from oil-fired plants might be driven off the scale (see Figure 3.1.). Based upon these results, there is some expectation that the SSPS will be cost effective with respect to fossil fuel systems by 1995. Furthermore, since fossil fuel (and nuclear) systems depend upon non-renewable sources of energy, the economic viability of SSPS may be enhanced relative to these beyond 1995. While every attempt has been made to cost the systems on a consistant basis, one major element of social cost has not been addressed: the system's relative social and environmental impacts. Within this study we have begun to develop a framework for evaluating these impacts. This will, however, require much further study before our level of understanding is adequate for the purpose of decision-making. Figure 3.2 provides an economic analysis of the payback of the (ROM) $44 billion development program. The analysis presumes that the total development burden is borne by the SSPS program, an assumption which is not, in our opinion, justified. The x-axis (abscissa) is "time" in calendar years. A second x-axis indicates the cumulative number of 5 thousand megawatt SSPS units operational at the beginning of the indicated year. The build-up -- two per year until 2000 and four per year until 2025 -- would provide at least ten percent of the U.S. incremental generation demand.
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