Looking beyond that phase, it seems reasonable to predict some type of subscale orbital demonstration would be required prior to further development of any satellite power system. Again, only general observations are possible at this time, but a probable time frame of the mid- to late-1980's looks reasonable. This would again utilize the Space Shuttle transportation system. This intermediate step would not require the large development commitment of the following phases. The likely objectives of this phase would be to demonstrate to the extent reasonable the end-to-end performance of the system elements, to verify predicted performance of critical system elements, and to add to the data base for projecting operational system costs. One possible concept is shown in figure 7. Note that the Shuttle orbiter is drawn in there to indicate the size—'this is not nearly so large as the fullscale systems that you have seen. This very preliminary concept is the result of a 6-week study. In addition, any subscale orbital demonstration program could be expected to contribute to the strength of the space program in general, in particular with regard to the areas of large space structures, assembly, space operations, power conversion and power transmission. To summarize, the potential of satellite power systems appears promising, and further investigations should be made. There is a large commonality between the objectives required by a satellite power system program and those of the space program in general. The problems ahead are seen as large-scale advanced technology and engineering development. Scientific breakthroughs are not required. Only a modest commitment to the next phase is required at this time; we feel a large-scale commitment is not appropriate. Further system analysis and definition, accompanied by technology studies and development, are the next step in the consideration. These efforts should include vigorous studies into possible environmental effects. This is also the time to initiate preliminary planning for the use of the Space Shuttle for space-based technology development when the Shuttle becomes available in the early 1980's. In the last figure [Fig. 8], we show that, based on a forecast of U.S. electrical energy consumption, the potential impact of satellite power systems could be significant. We have assumed that the first operational 5000-megawatt satellite would be on line in 1995, and to illustrate the cumulative impact, we assume a buildup to a rate of five satellites per year by the year 2005. These calculations, then, imply that about one-third of the capacity to be added after 1995 might be obtained from satellite power systems. Based on this and previous testimony, I am sure that you appreciate that a significant number of critical technical problems must be solved to achieve this indicated capacity. We have mentioned these areas before, and I will not repeat them here. In general, it is accepted that solar energy will play a significant role in the solution of the energy growth problem facing the country and the world. We feel strongly that the prospects are very good that solar energy from space will prove to be feasible and economical. Thank you.
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