to 10 $/kg. Advanced shuttles and unmanned boosters are publicly proposed to bring STS costs down an order of magnitude (100-300 $/kg) after 3 to 10 B$ development costs by the 1990s (41-45). These systems would provide several thousand tons per year of transport capacity to LEO but require cash flows the order of 10 B$ per year to sustain them. However, note that there is little perceived industrial economic activity in this region. Such new activity will be a major extension of peak #1 and require the creation of major new or expanded activities in #1 (30). Innovative approaches which exist for fully-reusable shuttle-like systems could decrease $/kg to orbit by more than a factor of 10 by the late 1980s. Development and operations costs can be expected to be compatible with private financial capabilities. Considerable optimism exists for vastly increased numbers of satellites involved in service activities (skill sections) of the economy. Such off-Earth activities will certainly continue because satellites offer the best way to transfer/gather information over great distances (46,47). Large service related systems in geosynchronous orbit will eventually require routine manned support, possibly permanent manned facilities. Less change in velocity is required to achieve high orbit around the moon from LEO than to enter geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Thus, any manned or unmanned program for LEO-GEO traffic should carefully weigh the benefits of access to lunar resources. Attention has been given to the building of dramatic heavy lift launch vehicles (HLLV), usually proposed as one- or two-stage devices, which could carry 100 to 500 tons to LEO in one mission (30). Development costs of 10 B$ or more and times the order of a decade are anticipated. Freight costs of 20 to 100 $/kg for haulage to LEO of 100,000 to 1,000,000 tons each year are targeted as justifying HLLV development. Cash flows of 10 to 20 B$/year are implied. It will require vigorous product/market development to extend region #1 into the HLLV region of #6. When aircraft-like freight rates and scheduling come into existence tourism and other human-directed, discretionary (novelty) needs will then self-justify creation of major supporting industries off Earth. Perhaps, a world economy of several 10,000 B$/year would have major terrestrial extensions into realm #6 (22). 5. PLANETARY SCALE POWER SYSTEMS Construction of large space solar power stations (SPS) was the first serious driver for HLLVs (26,48). SPS would have high intrinsic value (200 $/kg). Each SPS unit would have a large direct sales value (approximately 20 B$). The revenues from power sales would increase as the number of operating units and their integral operating times increase. Assembly of 200 $/kg SPS units at the rate of 10 to 20 GW of new power each year from components made on Earth would justify HLLVs or similar systems with 20 to 100 $/kg value-added transport capabilities (#7 in Fig. 6). The SPS units would introduce a totally new flow of non-depleting energy (Fig. 1) to Earth. Individual satellites were scaled, in study, to deliver 5-10 GW each of electric power (GW = E 9 watts). The U.S. consumes approximately 1,800 GW of thermal power with about 600 GW being made available as electricity. The world presently consumes about 5,000 GW (total thermal). Government sponsored studies (49,50) have challenged the approach as beyond even the organizational talents of the NASA/ aerospace community. Major questions were raised concerning financial uncertainty, time to first significant demonstration, growth potentials, power costs,
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