growth rate to zero: the proven reserves would then last about 90 years and the ultimate reserves about 133 years. But a zero growth rate would mean an actual negative per-capita growth rate when allowing for population growth. We are aware that considerable economies in energy consumption are possible in the developed world: vehicles could be made smaller; passive design of buildings could save a considerable amount of energy; energy waste in industry could be reduced. But all this calls for considerable effort and a disciplined public.* Thus the earlier conclusion, that reserves will last decades, not centuries, appears to be the realistic appraisal. 2. The Nuclear Option Whilst there will undoubtedly be some local increase in nuclear power production, the picture on a large scale appears to be that nuclear energy will not replace the diminishing fossil fuels. The reasons for this appraisal are: a. the nuclear lobby has not allayed the fears of a large part of the public on the potential dangers of nuclear stations. This is accentuated by b. the world is far more vocal than it was fifty years ago: measures which, even in the democracies, could be pushed through by a strong government can face very serious and effective blocking opposition today. c. no really satisfactory solutions have been offered concerning the disposal of radio-active waste, now accumulating in the stores at existing nuclear power stations. d. the production of weapons-grade plutonium is a source of great anxiety in a world racked by international terrorism. e. many utilities are reluctant, in an uncertain world, to make the very large investments that nuclear stations involve. The above remaks refer to current types of light-water and heavy-water fission reactors. What of the possibilities of nuclear fusion? Here there is almost no limitation of fuel, i.e., deuterium from the oceans. The prognosis is not very encouraging when we realize that the finest brains in the world have been working for the last fifty years trying to obtain a controlled fusion reaction without success. This is no proof that success will not come in the near future, but the probability is low, and it would be grossly irresponsible to build a scenario for future energy supplies based upon the assumption that controlled fusion will be achieved. 3. The Renewables These include a few small sources, such as wave energy, tides and geothermal energy! and the major source, solar energy, and its derivatives wind and hydropower. Thus, what appears to be the only option available has created both the challenge and the attraction of harnessing the sun. Can we see the sun replacing our fossil fuels as these become exhausted; This is the dream. What is reality? *The oil shortage in the mid-seventies resulted in a drop off of sales of large cars in the U.S. But a few years later these sales were rising again. tThis is renewable if one is prepared to wait several decades after a well has become depleted.
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