In summary: We see that over the next 15 years American space technology will make rapid strides because of threatened Soviet space dominance. The spaceplanes that the USA seeks to develop will threaten to destroy any European competitiveness and will certainly succeed in doing so very quickly if this is based on outdated technology. 6. Conclusion Strong evidence now exists that the Soviet Union is embarking on a long-term programme of space industrialization and that it is capable of carrying this programme out in the timescales indicated. The main tool for the implementation of this programme, a new very large general purpose launching system, is on the eve of its introduction. The threat of the introduction of this new Soviet launching system is driving the USA for both military and prestige reasons, to a dramatic increase in its spending on new launching technology in spite (or perhaps because) of its current difficulties. This new capability will take the form of highly economic SSTO spaceplanes and more efficient heavy lift vehicles. A scenario reminiscent of the Pan-Am shuttle and Hilton space station may even occur near to ‘schedule': 2001! The effect of the economies and many other facilities to be offered by these vehicles (such as increased safety, reliability and flexibility) will destroy the competitiveness of all other contestants in the commercial field not equipped with similar craft. Of course it is possible that the open Soviet literature referring to space industrialization is an elaborate and deliberate attempt to deflect attention away from a complex and gigantic military space build-up. However, this stretches the credibility of the author too far. Perhaps the best analogy of the situation is as follows. The car is a generalized transportation system, and there are lots of cars in the UK, so that if 2% of these were armoured personnel carriers it would seem to represent a massive military buildup to someone who merely counted the armoured cars only. The danger would be that the economic and other potentials of the other 98% of the vehicles would be lost. The author does not want to make light of the possible short-term military threat of the SLW but begs the reader to remember what is, after all, the far more important long-term economic contest between the USA and USSR. It the hopes expressed by Sarkisjan and his colleagues are realized, then the cheap energy from the Soviet SPS system will enable their economy to move from behind to ahead of the rest with an ever increasing lead. In fact, all other things being equal, theory tells us that the Soviet economy should move away from the rest of the world exponentially. Even if the West begins a similar growth, but (inevitably) later, the reader will recall that the differential growth rate will still be exponential. REFERENCES [1] Forrester, J.W. (1971) World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press. [2] Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J. & Behrens, W.W. Ill (1972) The Limits to Growth-A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind, A. Potomac Associates Book, Earth Island, London, 1972. Also Pan Books, 1974. [3] Martin, A.R. (1985) ‘Space resources and the limits to growth,' Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, 38, pp. 243-252.
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