World models have been generated by CST for both the ‘Forrester' and ‘Martin' cases and attempts have been made to reconstruct the model used by Sarkisjan et al. It appears to be an open loop model and analytical rather than a simulation. Both Martin and Sarkisjan et al agree on the necessity of space industrialization. However, since only some preliminary modelling work has been done it is as yet unclear what the global effect would be should one region alone elect, or be forced to ‘go it alone.' It will be unacceptable to the USA for the Soviets to have even the capabilities that are currently becoming apparent without competition. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union stands a good chance to be the first world power to space-industrialize for the following reasons: 1. The Soviet Union has a far greater (possibly unique) ability compared with other powers to initiate the implementation of very long-scale projects involving high ‘up-front' capital costs and planning horizons in excess of 25 years. 2. The fact that space industrialization is likely to benefit the Soviet Union earlier and to a greater extent. 3. The Soviet Union possesses or is soon to develop all necessary space propulsion and launching technology. Reason 1 is beyond the scope of the discussion in this paper but it is assumed that it will be conceded by most observers as a necessary characteristic of a large-scale planned economy. It is listed here to show that the three necessary components for the perpetration of any act are present: • ability, • motivation, • opportunity. In his speech to the 27th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party on 25 February 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev outlined an “all-embracing system of international security” as a long-term objective of Soviet foreign policy [5]. The system was divided into four areas: military, political, economic, and humanitarian. Space was explicitly mentioned under the economic heading in the following terms: “The pooling of efforts to explore and make peaceful use of outer space and to resolve global problems on which the destinies of civilisation depend.” Sections 2 and 3 attempt to answer questions as to how and why the Soviet Union has now come to the position of being able to space-industrialize. Sections 4 and 5 then examine the immediate impact that the main tool being built for the purpose, the new heavy lift launcher, will have on other world space programmes. 2. Past Present and Future Historical pointers It was a Russian, Tsiolkowski, who formulated the theoretical basis for astronautics around the turn of the century. His work provided the inspiration for workers in Europe (including the UK) and the USA. In 1957 the Soviets used their first generation ICBM to orbit a satellite of a mass 10 times that of the US civil project's capability. The US civil vehicle subsequently failed, and a crash programme was begun in reaction. It should be noted that the USSR had, in fact, made sufficient comment about its intentions to warn of the event beforehand, but Western prejudice had prevented any notice being taken, (Fig. 1). (It should also be noted that, whilst probably fortuitous, subsequent planning and
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