From the Present to the Future Projections start with a calendar. Using as many dates as are available, a chart can be prepared showing anticipated programmes and events. For example a very simplified picture is shown in Fig. 4. Into these data are incorporated, in a quantitative way, extraneous information such as national space-relevant problems and rates of growth. Finally, technological and economic assessments have to be made to decide whether growth is possible from the existing base. Factors taken into account are the drivers shown in Fig. 5. From such data a projection can be constructed in a semi quantitative manner. As more data are added, a model can be constructed that can anticipate future space technology needs and activities and to enable a response to them in good time. The basic components of such a model's construction were already known to key CST personnel and advisers even before its formation, and so the need for vehicles such as HOTOL were understood by them at an early date. The recognition of that necessity was the mother of the invention of HOTOL's propulsion system. It may turn out that quick response single-stage to orbit vehicles may be one of the West's few immediate responses to the overwhelming Soviet programme. 3. Soviet Space Industrialization From published material over the past 10 years the Soviets have an interest in large- scale space exploitation. In October 1985, Sarkisjan et al [4], in a paper presented at the IAF Congress, set out the main steps in what was apparently the Soviet plan for the installation of a system of space energy technology, which will hold the key to total space industrialization. These events were: 1. The lighting of Earth from space. 2. Energy retransmission from ground-based sources to the (ground-based) demand locations. 3. Generation of energy in-orbit for transmission to the ground-based demand locations. 4. Generation of energy in-orbit (GEO is specified) for general use in-orbit by other space complexes. 5. In-orbit generation for space transportation use. 6. Intensification of natural biological processes using orbital solar concentrators. A power satellite system should be installed between 2005-2010. This paper attempts to show some indications that these objectives are achievable by the Soviet Union. The motivation At the end of 1983, the Soviet Union was the leading world producer of both oil and natural gas, and in the short term this level of production is expected to increase. In the medium to long term, however, this trend will not continue. The production of natural gas is expected to increase for some years to come. The logistics of gas recovery is the limiting factor in this sector, rather than the reserves. Proven reserves of gas at present are equal to over 70 years supply, and these reserves are increasing. This can be contrasted to the state of the oil reserves, which have been estimated to be between 10-20 years supply at current output.
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