Scenario for Extraterrestrial Civilization WILLIAM E. MACDANIEL Summary This paper reports on a research project, under the aegis of the Niagara University Space Settlement Project, which was conducted in the hope that preliminary efforts aimed at identification of potential sociocultural problems in space may facilitate development of an extraterrestrial civilization that can successfully withstand the difficulties that human populations will encounter as mankind expands its influence into space. Research Rationale When civilizations decline and fail, they do not do so because of natural disasters. They fail because they have evolved sociocultural patterns which are inappropriate for the conditions in which they must exist, or because their sociocultural patterns fail to change in order to accommodate changes that have taken place in social, political, economic, or natural environments. We are currently on the threshold of developing an extraterrestrial civilization which will be subject to these same dangers. This research project, under the aegis of the Niagara University Space Settlement Project, was conducted in the hope that preliminary efforts aimed at identification of potential sociocultural problems in space may facilitate development of an extraterrestrial civilization that can successfully withstand the difficulties that human populations will encounter as mankind expands its influence into space. Two basic assumptions underlie this research. (1) The future will witness a constantly expanding human work force in extraterrestrial space which will evolve into a permanent extraterrestrial population. We possess the technological knowledge necessary for construction of human habitats in cislunar space and both the USA and the USSR are currently embarked upon programmes aimed at placing and maintaining permanently manned stations in low Earth orbit (LEO). In addition, military requirements, international political considerations, desire for acquisition of scientific knowledge, and pursuit of economic goals will constitute forces in this same direction. The high cost of maintaining an extraterrestrial work force through crew rotation, for example, will dictate that workers remain on-orbit for extended periods of time. This will lead to fractional crew rotation (i.e. rotation of only part of a crew at one time) and will necessitate development of on-orbit habitats which provide extensive facilities for creature comfort, recreation, and human services. Such facilities, in which humans can maintain satisfying life styles, will establish the environmental basis for a permanent human population in space. William E. MacDaniel, Niagara University (Retired). Present address, San Antonio, TX, USA.
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