Countermeasures for Mitigating the Effects of Global Environment Changes LYLE M. JENKINS1 SUMMARY Increased concern over the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer has resulted in support for the Global Change Research Program. Research to understand Earth system processes is critical, but it falls short of providing ways of mitigating the effects of change. Options and alternatives need to be developed. Space-based concepts for environmental countermeasures should be considered in addition to Earth-based actions. Definition, analysis, demonstration and preparation of mitigation technology provide a basis for policy response if global change consequences are severe. Background and Problem Definition A broad public awareness of the potential for global climate change and for the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer has been the result of current media attention to issues long troubling the scientific community. These issues have been addressed in the intensive research now underway to monitor, model, and predict the course of environmental change. This activity has been particularly focused in the U.S. Global Change Research Program [1]. The process to establish the rate and magnitude of change will take some time to reach a level of certainty that will support consensus on those mitigating actions which are very costly. By the time a consensus is reached, active response may be imperative. Policy making responses can be categorized into prevention, adaptation, and engineeringcountermeasures[2]. Prevention methods should be used as extensively as economically possible. Adaptation is the ultimate response to change as it has been throughout the history of the world. The primary concern must be the rate of change to be accommodated. As insurance against rapid change, countermeasures options and alternatives for mitigation of the effects of change should be brought to a state of readiness for early implementation. Both Earth-based and space-based countermeasures should be analyzed to assess benefits, costs and risks of implementation. Research and testing of countermeasures concepts should be undertaken to reduce the risks inherent in instituting an intervention program. Formulation of these programs should parallel ongoing research into the Earth's environmental processes to reduce the reaction time in commencing required countermeasures. t Technology Project Manager, NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
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