An Evaluation Model of Solar Power Satellites Using World Dynamics Simulation YOSHIKI YAMAGIWA1 & MAKOTO NAGATOMOft SUMMARY A world dynamics simulation model including solar power satellites (SPS) is proposed for the purpose of analyzing the effect of SPS on the Earth’s environment. The model consists of the Earth section which is based on Forrester’s WORLD-2 model, and the SPS section which is based on energy cost analysis referring to the chemical and traffic industries on Earth. Both sections of the model are connected through the energy investment in SPS from the Earth and the energy return from SPS to the Earth. The simulation results indicate that a relatively small amount of energy investment in SPS would be effective in improving the Earth’s environment in the future. Introduction Recently, the influence of human activitieson the Earth’s environment, such as the exhaustion of resources, pollution of the air, the greenhouse effect, etc., have increased significantly. Such influences were predicted by the world dynamics models of Forrester [1] and Meadows’ team at MIT [2] about twenty years ago. Figure 1 shows a basic simulation result of a modified version of Forrester’s WORLD-2 model. The natural resources and pollution subsystems in the model were modified as described later, but this simulation result is almost the same as that of the original model. This figure shows that the population, the capital and the quality of life on Earth reach their peak values in the early years of the next century, and decline there after, due mainly to the depletion of resources if economic growth on Earth continues at the present rate and if energy production depends on fossil fuels found on Earth. For such "limits to growth" in the closed Earth system, space industrialization, which makes it possible to get energy and natural resources from outer space, will provide the world dynamics model with new boundary conditions and provide a new solution. In this study, a satellite power system, especially using solar power satellites (SPS) [3], is selected as representative of space industrialization because; 1) it is a basic element of space industrialization that will need to come first; 2) the quantitative characteristics of SPS-related activities can be estimated from existing industrial statistics; 3) the value of electricity generated can easily be evaluated as a return on investment. In this study, a world dynamics simulation model including SPS is proposed for evaluating the effect of SPS on the Earth’s environment. College of Engineering, Shizuoka University, 3-5-1 Johoku, Uamamatsu-shi, 432 Japan. + ' Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Sagamihara, 229 Japan.
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