Specific Constraints for Energy Development For the end of this century, a capacity addition of around 45 GW is being planned. The sheer size of the expansion programme may call for organizational or institutional innovations. It is not always possible to increase the unit sizes and reduce the number of units. Water constraints in hydro, steam constraints in geothermal, natural gas and good quality coal constraints, as well as the inherently fragmented nature of the systems (such as those in the Philippines and Indonesia) may compel the utilities to construct generating units of small sizes with correspondingly heavy organizational burdens. Environmental considerations may have the effects of delays, making projects much more expensive than originally planned, and even of cancelling many of the hydro, coal-fired and geothermal power projects. The power sector already draws some 10-20% of the government budget. Innovations adopted to mitigate or overcome these problems will include creation of a larger number of utilities, greater participation of the private sector through build-operate-transfer (BOT), build-own-operate (BOO), and build-own-lease (BOL) options, resort to large turnkey contracts and the use of contracts for operation and maintenance. The construction of combined cycle units is likely to reduce capital costs of base load and intermediate load plants. Sustainable development requires the simultaneous fufilment of several goals, some of which are likely to be competing. One such goal is poverty alleviation through economic growth and redistribution of income and wealth. Economic growth and income redistribution are, however, likely to increase the demand for goods and services requiring more use of fossil fuels for consumption and production activities. Using up nonrenewable energy resources may well be in conflict with the sustainable dimension of enhancing the resource base so that the future potential to meet human needs and aspirations can be expanded. What is required is a strategy for technology-oriented investments that broadens this scope so that the transition to an environmentally acceptable backstop energy technology set becomes smooth. This implies a balance between investments, innovation and consumption that allows for continued growth. Furthermore the rapid increase in the use of fossil fuels may be in conflict with the fundamental environmental dimensions of sustainable development. Long Term Energy Development The ASEAN region can, therefore go a long way toward diversifying its energy sources away from its dependence on oil, if concerted efforts are exerted to utilize to the fullest all energy resources available in the region. But one has to be realistic enough to accept that the region’s available energy resources cannot make it completely self-sufficient in the next century. In this context, ASEAN countries may have to find other alternatives:
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