Energy Development and Environment: What about Solar Energy in a Long Term Perspective? BENJAMIN DESSUS* FRANCOIS PHARABOD** Summary: After decades of strong growth, the next century might be that in which the world population is stabilized around 11 billion inhabitants. Next century’s main concerns include the development hoped for by the, the probable consequences of an increase of the greenhouse effect due to man induced emissions, and the risks posed by possible dissemination of nuclear energy to all the regions of the globe. In order to shed some light on these questions, we propose an energy scenario, based on an analysis of evolution of demographics, energy needs, renewable and fossil reserves, environmental issues, technological possibilities and regional imbalances. This scenario shows that solar energy could contribute significantly in the long term energy mix. We discuss the respective advantages and drawbacks of the different solar technologies: solar power satellites, ground solar power plants and decentralized applications, as they relate to the needs that must be satisfied. Introduction The dawning of the 1990s is just the right time for millenarian stirring. The primary concerns include natural resource depletion, spread of pollution, rising sea levels and climate change. In addition, other issues must also be addressed including potential development and rising population of the Third World, the hazard posed by reliance on nuclear power and the resulting threat of nuclear (weapons) proliferation, and the consequences of an increased greenhouse effect. These issues and concerns raise three important questions regarding the next century. • Can we expect to face an energy shortage? • In trying to avoid an energy shortage, might we not go from Charybde to Scylla by adopting modes of energy production that are dangerous for both nature and humanity? • Does not the development of new countries threaten to throw the planet completely off-balance, from both an energy and ecological point of view? *PIRSEM, National Center for Scientific Research 4 rue Las Cases, 75007 Paris, France *CPE, Ministry of Research and Technology 1 rue Descartes, 75005 Paris, France
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