Finally, three domains of research, which are still experimental, need technological breakthroughs to reach a major quantitative impact before 2100. These include: • Controlled thermonuclear fusion, the demonstration of which has yet to be proven and is not viewed as occuring in the near future. • Large solar power satellites (several tenths of km^), placed in geostationary orbit, which transmit electric energy to the earth by microwaves. • Geothermy of hot dry rocks, obtained by creating a heat exchanger at a depth compatible with the desired temperature and artificially fed with water. Lastly we do not forsee significant development, before the year 2100, of effective techniques for eliminating carbon dioxide produced by fossil-fuel resources and related exploitation of coal reserves. Nor do we forsee significant development of nuclear sources without long-lived waste products. The NOE "New Options for Energy " scenario [3] Among the different scenarios that we have studied, there is one, the NOE scenario which strives to simultaneously mitigate two equally serious environmental threats. These are the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and of nuclear waste on Earth. Either we let the greenhouse effect take place in order to avoid the use of nuclear energy, or we let long-lived nuclear waste accumulate at an increasing rate in order to avoid the greenhouse effect. In the first case we are wagering that we will find solutions for eliminating CO2 or that we will adapt ourselves to the probable climate change. In the second, we are wagering that we will find solutions for the permanent decontamination of these wastes, or that future generations will adapt themselves. The NOE scenario is the result of an approach which takes a global and regional view on the matter. This approach, based on the advice of experts, does not require complex analytical modeling (Medea type) [4], The approach is global in that it looks at evaluations of primary energy consumption and does not explicitly analyze final consumption per application. It is regional because it relies on a splitting up of the world into ten large regions, 4 for the North, 6 for the South, and regrouping countries with similar characteristics. This division is a result of the analysis of the world energy situation as it is presented in the World Energy Atlas [5]. The constraining hypotheses are set forth in physical terms. This is preferable to economic growth-rate and price of oil type econometric hypotheses, which have minimal validity for long term assessments.
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