These two constraints obviously weigh very heavily on the final evaluation. The limited utilization of fossil-fuel resources, and the renunciation of recourse to nuclear resources in the long-term, make it necessary to emphasize the efforts made towards energy conservation and renewable energy resources. The first phase of the exploratory approach therefore consists of estimating the evolution of the demand for energy in each of the ten regions discussed for the NOE scenario. J. Goldcmberg, T. Johansson, A. Reddy and R. Williams have shown [10] how technological evolution and the spread of effective energy measures could halve the consumption level per inhabitant in the northern countries. Their analysis also shows how the southern countries can bring about a sustainable development which would give access to satisfactory living conditions, without their energy needs surpassing their equipment and financial capacities. We will retain the results of this study, while, pushing back the 2020 deadline set by its (NOE) authors, taking into account structural, institutional and cultural inertia, as well as economic and financial constraints. We shifted to the middle of next century an average reduction of one-half for the consumption level per inhabitant in industrialized countries (2.4 toe/inhab/year) and an average rise to 1 toe/inhab/year in the southern countries (toe= tonnes of oil equivalent). The average consumption values, per inhabitant, are then divided, taking into account the specific characteristics of the ten regions considered. The total demand in primary energy per region is then deduced by taking account of the growth of populations. In the second phase of this exploratory approach, we try to build a structure of supplies meeting the demand as it is defined. The iteration proceeds in three steps: • Estimation of fossil-fuel energy supplies using observed trends, taking into account self-reduction in fossil-fuel energy consumption in industrialized countries which would occur, out of fear of the greenhouse effect (regulations and taxes), and because of the progressive depletion of crude oil and gas resources. • Sustained mobilization of renewable energy resources, first depending on their regional potential, with a dynamics which takes account of the values observed in the past, then with a partial energy exploitation of uninhabited regions (solar energy in the Sahara, hydraulics in the Himalayas, wind energy in Greenland); • Use of nuclear power to obtain the required energy balance, while assuring feasibility of the resulting dynamics and a progressive reduction to zero after 2020.
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