Wind: equipment in windy regions (> 3500 kWh/year per installed kW) with a maximum of 20% of the local needs of electricity to take into account the random aspect of the production. For instance if we assume the electricity needs in Europe are 40% of total needs in 2100, (250 Mtoe), 150 Mtoe will be consumed in windy regions, then a maximum of 30 Mtoe could be produced by wind. Decentralized photovoltaics: 1 m^ of photovoltaic cells per inhabitant in sunny regions (> 1400 kWh/year) for rural, suburban or urban single or semi-collective housing (for example 30 % of the European population could use these off and on grid applications). Centralized electricity: we consider centralized solar electricity as the difference between the total needs of solar electricity and the potential contribution of wind and decentralized solar electricity even if it is connected to the grid (typically photovoltaic cells on each house). Indeed, it appears that wind technology is already cheaper than solar power plants or SPS. On the other hand, the cost of decentralized photovoltaics will parallel the cost of the principal component (the cell) which should fall dramatically after 2000. This is not the case for SPS the cost of which is essentially due to the launch and space assembly cost. Further more SPS economics must take into account the cost of the antenna which could be non negligible compared with the support structure of a ground-based solar power plant field. The last column of this table indicates the regional resultant need for ground solar power plants (GSPP) or solar power satellites (SPS) in 2100. The main assumptions which support our initial approach arc the following: We consider that ground solar power plants (GSPP) will be preferentially installed in regions where population concentrations are in close proxiimity to desert areas and SOLAR SUPPLIES 2100, Scenario NOE total Thermal Appliances Wind Solar Decentralized electricity Total SPS+ Solar plants North America 100 15 30 6 49 Europe 70 18 30 6 16 Japan, Australia, New Zealand 80 15 20 5 40 USSR Central Europe 100 20 3 6 71 Latin America 250 37 20 26 167 N Africa Middle East 650 30 1 26 593 Africa 500 65 1 60 374 India 150 55 20 43 32 China 200 45 20 40 95 Asia Oceania 250 50 5 32 163 World total 2350 350 150 250 1600
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