which it was claimed that the cost to the beginning of solar power satellite construction was $5-10 x 109 [59], Since S.S.I. was authored by O'Neill, and is based on workshops in 1978 and 1979 [60] this cost estimate is based on this plan, In the present paper, an extension of S.S.I. to the arrival in low earth orbit of the first solar power satellite was made, but to reduce costs, it was assumed that the solar power satellites could be constructed from lunar materials only, and that when the self-reproducing machinery at the space manufacturing facility reached 3 x 10^ t/yr. throughput it could begin immediately to produce the solar power satellites, instead of first constructing other manufacturing facilities for this purpose for one to two years. The cost estimate found was $42.59 x 109, more than 4 times greater than the maximum stated in the Stanford speech. Only part of the difference is from inflation of the equipment and launch costs on which the estimate is based. The manufacturing facilities of S.S.I. were only partially self reproducing, and to reduce costs, manufacturing facilities with pure self-reproduction were assumed in some of the plans. More stringent versions of cautions discussed above for the extended S.S.I. plan apply to cost estimates for these manufacturing facilities. The number of space manufacturing facilities in the habitat construction plans requires artificial intelligence for control. This artificial intelligence does not now exist, and it would probably have to be advanced enough that it would be able to design the entire plan, including the habitats. The construction of habitats with interiors which contain open land by the plans of this paper is thus postponed until such artificial intelligence is developed; if developed specifically for these plans, cost would be in addition to the costs given here. For the least expensive plan, which yields habitats, this cost is $10.25 x 109; this plan uses pure self-reproduction, construction in low earth orbit, and asteroids as resources. No preliminary designs of self-reproducing manufacturing facilities detailed enough to estimate the cost to develop a detailed design for these facilities have been presented by S.S.I. or elsewhere, and no further consideration should be given to the plans in this paper until this preliminary design becomes available. If this preliminary design does become available, and the estimated cost to find the detailed design is acceptably low, as well as the estimated total development cost of the space manufacturing facility, then the detailed design should be found; then, if the detailed design indicates that the cost to develop the manufacturing facilities is acceptably low, the decision whether to pursue these plans can be made. If, based on the preliminary design, the cost to find the detailed design would be too great, or if the estimated total development cost of the manufacturing facility is too great, or if the detailed design is found, but this detailed design shows that the cost to develop the manufacturing facilities is too great, the effect of the use of artificial intelligence on the total cost of development, that is, including the cost to develop the artificial intelligence, should be determined, if possible, since the total cost may be reduced by this means. At present, however, the cost and time to develop artificial intelligence are uncertain enough that this would not be possible. Artificial intelligence is required in the asteroid retrieval plans, but since the development of a space manufacturing facility with pure self reproduction is required in those plans, the
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