completion of the third stage, another 3 month period is allocated to publish results and make the decision whether to proceed. If it is found at any time during the research that artificial intelligence must be developed to produce a detailed enough design of the manufacturing facilities or any other equipment to allow further refinement of cost estimates at the rate given in the program, or to make the cost estimates themselves, and time and cost estimates for the development of the artificial intelligence can be found, and if the artificial intelligence can be developed in an acceptably short time, the research on the cost estimates of the various plans is halted if the cost to develop the artificial intelligence is acceptably low. The artificial intelligence is then developed, and the refinement of the cost estimates for the plans resumed when the artificial intelligence is complete. If the time or cost to develop the artificial intelligence are unacceptably great or cannot be found, the further refinement of cost estimates of the plans proceeds only if the expected uncertainty at the end of the third stage is less than that of other possibilities besides these plans which are equally desirable. Uncertainty of Assumptions The most uncertain assumptions, in approximate order of decreasing uncertainty, are: 1. Cost before any self-reproducing manufacturing facility is produced, either partially or completely self-reproducing. 2. Actual designs for all objects, other than solar power satellites. 3. Designs for solar power satellites. 4. Cost of particular space and lunar manufacturing facilities. 5. Masses of space and lunar manufacturing facilities. 6. Mass launcher cost for lunar manufacturing facilities. 7. Mass driver reaction engine masses, exhaust velocities, and costs. 8. Artificial intelligence and computer costs. 9. Cost of government and first receiver. 10. Additional design cost of solar power satellites if any, not included in computer costs. 11. Masses delivered by the lunar transfer vehicle, can cabin be removed. 12. In SP-428, why was total equipment mass greater than that given in the tables?
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==