this assumption on the depletion rate of "proven reserves". They are plots of proven oil reserves, rate of consumption, and time to depletion. In both figures the bottom line represents no increase in reserves since 1990 and a 1.76 percent growth in consumption which is a 20 year average that includes 4 years of decline. The upper curve or bound represents a growth in reserves of 3.45 percent per year which is also the 20 year average. Consumption as before is assumed to grow at 1.76 percent. Curve A is based on the assumptions that reserves increase at the rate of 3.45 percent and consumption grows at the rate of 2.86 percent which is a 16 year average, i.e. the four years of decline in consumption are removed. Curve B probably comes closer to predicting the future. It is based on the assumptions that rate of increases in reserves declines by a tenth of a percent per year and consumption increases from 1.76 to 2.86 percent in tenth of a percent increases. The three lower curves in Figure 4 establish a time bracket of between 30 and 50 years before relatively easily accessible and hence affordable liquid fossil fuels are depleted. It should be noted that because of capital investment requirements, major transitions in power generation take over 100 years [ notes: Erb], FIGURE 3 - Proven Oil Reserves and Effects of Consumption Yes there are probably still oil deposits to be discovered and developed but like other resources they are going to be hard to find, more expensive to develop and probably not as long lasting. Depletion will force choices such as developing the oil resources of the Arctic Wilderness Area, doing without energy, or facilitating and participating in the development of alternatives, leaving no easy choices.
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