• An ecologically-driven scenario, assuming effective controls on energy use to achieve ecological benefits. The projected energy use levels connected with these scenarios are given in figure 2. Figure 2. World Energy Demand Scenarios The ecologically driven scenario was judged very unlikely to occur. Indeed such a scenario would result in an absolute decrease in per capita energy use when expanding populations are considered. The most likely result, in the next 25 years or so, is for demand to increase by an amount between 6 and 10 terawatts. To meet this demand will require establishing an additional energy supply approximately equivalent to that developed so far this century. The global picture presented here is, however, too simple. To understand the adequacy of energy supply it is necessary to look at energy use on a regional basis. Again there are studies that go into great detail, but, for this paper, we will consider the simplest partitioning; i.e., between the Industrialized Countries and the Developing Countries. The WEC has projected how energy use will be distributed regionally and this projection is shown in figure 3. Studies of population trends indicate that the Industrialized Countries will experience only modest growth over this forecast period. This slight growth, combined with recent and anticipated progress in more efficient use of energy, account for the limited increase in total energy use. The Developing Countries, on the other hand, have exceedingly little to conserve. Over half of the world's population has no access to commercial energy let alone electricity, and a certain minimum consumption of energy is vital to support a decent human condition. Dr. R. K. Pachauri of India, describes this well as follows: “A large part of the human race is today gripped by widespread poverty, which can only be improved through an absolute minimum level of energy use as a input to a range of activities that provide the most basic of services for secure and stable human existence” [3].
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