In his address, Dr. Pachauri went on to note that these services include a minimum of a clean water supply, refrigeration for the village health center, lighting at night and perhaps a community TV. Figure 3. Regional Energy Use Projections to the Year 2020 What if those were the only energy services we "enjoyed"? We would consider such services barely adequate for survival. Yet the availability of such services would be a major step up for much of the world. Without the energy to provide these services, the social changes that should eventually stabilize world populations will not occur. Without such changes, disparities between the Industrialized Countries and the Developing Countries will grow, leading eventually to immense strains within and between nations. From this brief survey we can conclude that substantial amounts of additional energy will be needed in the future and that the need will arise dominantly in the Developing Countries. Supply Outlook - Present Sources The present major sources of commercial base load energy which are significant contributors are, essentially, fossil fuels, nuclear fission, and hydroelectric installations. All the other sources contribute less than two percent of the total. Furthermore, the energy infrastructure is so vast that there will be only slow change from the present mix of sources in the short run; i.e., the next few decades. The present energy source picture is dominated by fossil fuels which provide some 88% of the total commercial energy. Hydroelectric and nuclear fission are important contributors, especially in the electric sector. Each provides around 6%. The extent of the supply of fossil fuels and of uranium for nuclear fission use is a subject of continuing debate. A widely-accepted view [4] of the typical periods over which current consumption could continue is:
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