The sheer magnitude of the world energy system makes it very unlikely that energy practices over the next few decades will change rapidly enough to avert some temperature increase. The IPCC estimated warming prospects through the end of the next century by which time the concentration of CO2 may have far more than doubled. However, one prominent researcher, William Cline, asserts [13] that we need to be concerned with a time span far longer than that. Work by Sundquist [13] accounts for use of our supplies of fossil fuels over some 300 to 500 years. On this basis, implying consumption rates approximating those presently being experienced, he projects a very much greater increase in atmospheric CO2 as shown in figure 11. The effects that are expected from global warming are, according to Cline, at least the following: • Agricultural yields will generally decrease • Forest areas will be lost, particularly in the early centuries • Species loss will accelerate • The sea level will rise • Cooling costs will far offset any decreased heating costs • Human mortality will increase with a doubling of summer deaths, significantly offsetting winter reductions • The frequency and severity of hurricanes and storms will increase • Some winter recreational activities such as skiing will be severely reduced. Cline has estimated the economic impacts on various aspects of our human situation for both near- and long-term warming. Characterizing these as 2.5° and 10° C, the annual impacts [23] for the U.S.A, are estimated to be at least $ 61 billion and $ 335 billion, respectively. World-wide impacts are estimated at two to three times those projected for the U.S.A. The conclusion which this author draws from the foregoing analysis is that the effects which can stem from increasing CO2 are sufficiently serious that we should take prudent steps to limit the increase. Recognizing the limit to our understanding of the complex workings of the natural world, it would be unwise to think that we can "manage" climate change. Clearly we pay a price and run a risk of serious future difficulties for our energyrich life styles. The question is how do we balance the acquisition and use of energy so we have enough to thrive economically, enough for the development that will stabilize population, and energy of a quality that will keep us and our planet healthy. The Impact of External Factors on Cost of Energy Clearly the acquisition and utilization of energy carries with it real costs in terms of the effects on humans and their environment. These costs are, however, not explicitly calculated as is the cost of a unit of capital or a unit of fuel. A number of studies
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