In some regards, much has changed since the analysis of the Reference System. Solar cell technology has made major strides and efficiencies are much higher than a decade ago. Furthermore, production rates have increased by orders of magnitude with annual production expected to reach 100 megawatts by the turn of the century [25] [16]. On the other hand, little progress has been made on reducing the cost of transport to low earth orbit. Seemingly endless studies for new transportation systems have failed to indicate the low costs postulated in the analysis of the Reference System (about $ 30 per kilogram to low earth orbit, in 1978 dollars). Recent studies [17] indicate that, with advanced solar array technology, a competitive system that would provide power at 12.5 cents/kWh could be developed if launch could be achieved at $50 per pound. This launch cost is, considering an inflation factor of about three, close to the 1978 level. Such launch costs, roughly $100 per kilogram, will be a very significant challenge. The same study indicates that the most accessible market would be the communities at high latitudes where the terrestrial solar option is less attractive and energy costs are high. [26] An independent analysis by Leonard [18] indicates that a profitable importation of power can be obtained with launch costs of $88 per kilogram and power sold at 10 cents/kWh. Studies of the importation of solar power from space have generally compared cost estimates with those for base load power in the Industrialized Countries. This comparison does not address the total picture. Markets for peaking power, where higher prices prevail, can also be served [19], And, as was shown earlier, the major need is in the Developing Countries where power prices are high and alternative options few. One would like to be able to answer the title question, Power From Space - Can it Compete?, affirmatively. However, it is just too soon to really know. Implementations of this intriguing power source will become more attractive with acceptance of full cost accounting for external and environmental effects. Initially it will find its use in niche markets where the cost of power is high and there are few alternatives. However, broad implementation as a major contributor to world energy will require substantial decreases in the cost of launching material to orbit. Conclusions The following are the key points: • There are serious problems with present energy practices • Our heavy use of fossil fuels over the last several decades has already committed us to significant adverse impacts on the global climate and on the world economy
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